Imagine a rollercoaster ride through the unpredictable world of professional cycling, where champions rise, underdogs surprise, and even the most confident forecasts can end up in the dust. That's the thrilling essence of reflecting on our bold predictions for the 2025 season—a year that proved just how wild this sport can be. But here's where it gets controversial: What if predictability in cycling isn't a flaw, but a sign of an era dominated by superhumans like Tadej Pogačar? Dive in as we dissect what we nailed and what left us scratching our heads, setting the stage for even bolder bets on 2026.
Updated November 17, 2025, at 02:26 AM
Back in January, I shared a handful of daring forecasts for the upcoming cycling season (https://velo.outsideonline.com/road/rogla-revenge-pogi-on-the-pave-a-french-tour-winner-5-outrageous-cycling-predictions-for-2025/). As someone deeply immersed in the world of bike racing, I simply can't resist the yearly tradition of forecasting victors. Yet, with Tadej Pogačar dominating every race like an unstoppable force, declaring 'Pogi will take it again' feels almost cliché. And, unsurprisingly, he often did just that. Still, making predictions remains an exhilarating pastime—I've done it publicly, like here, or casually with buddies over small stakes wagers. So, last winter, instead of relying on safe bets, I ventured into uncharted territory with some truly audacious possibilities.
Let's revisit how my 'crystal ball' held up against the tumultuous Pogačar-centric year.
Prediction No. 1: Tom Pidcock astounds skeptics by claiming victory at the Vuelta a España
Outcome: 3/5
This one wasn't entirely off-base. Perhaps I was overly enthusiastic about Tom Pidcock's potential after witnessing his talents, but I sensed that if he fully committed to road cycling, he could elevate his game dramatically. And he did, through his smart switch to Q36.5—widely regarded as the smartest move of the 2024-25 offseason. For beginners, think of it like finding the perfect team that boosts your strengths; Pidcock finally seemed settled. In 2025, he ticked numerous boxes: his inaugural general classification triumph at the AlUla Tour (a smaller event, but every win counts for momentum), a courageous runner-up spot at Strade Bianche battling Pogačar directly, and completing two Grand Tours consecutively—a feat that tests endurance to the limit.
The grand prize was the Vuelta, where I envisioned Pidcock orchestrating a massive upset to snatch the title. How? By breaking away early to build a lead and then summoning the stamina and boldness to hold off the competition. Of course, with Jonas Vingegaard in the mix, it was always a long shot for outsiders. Nevertheless, Pidcock impressed with a third-place finish, a major leap forward poised for 2026. Could he one day conquer the Tour de France? Likely not, but he might fuel more outrageous predictions soon. And this is the part most people miss: Pidcock's versatility from cyclo-cross could redefine road racing boundaries—what do you think, is cross-training the secret weapon?
Prediction No. 2: Tadej Pogačar storms onto the Paris-Roubaix podium
Outcome: 4/5
It's hard to recall just how radical the idea of Pogačar tackling Paris-Roubaix seemed at first. For newcomers to cycling, Paris-Roubaix is the infamous 'Hell of the North,' a brutal race with bone-jarring cobblestones that can derail even the toughest riders. No top Tour contender had dared it in their peak form since legends like Bernard Hinault or Greg LeMond. The general consensus? The brutal demands are too risky for a lightweight powerhouses like Pogačar in today's competitive landscape. But rules are meant to be bent by such talents, aren't they?
His debut at Roubaix delivered one of 2025's most electrifying races. A minor mistake late in the game prevented him from achieving the unthinkable. I'm convinced he could have overcome Mathieu van der Poel on the treacherous Carrefour de l’Arbre sector and secured that coveted cobblestone trophy. MVDP appeared vulnerable, with Pogačar closing in like a vice before that slip-up. Van der Poel stands as the rare rider who can rival Pogi in one-on-one duels, especially on terrain that suits his style—like Roubaix.
But here's where it gets controversial: Should GC specialists even risk such races, potentially sacrificing future Tour glory for a one-off thrill? Fingers crossed for a 2026 showdown; predicting his win might not sound insane anymore. Do you agree that pushing boundaries like this invigorates the sport, or is it a reckless gamble?
Prediction No. 3: An injury-free Chloé Dygert dominates the women's classics
Outcome: 2/5
When Chloé Dygert is at full fitness, she's virtually unmatched in the women's peloton. Her raw power and unshakeable determination set her apart—evidenced by two world time trial championships and three Olympic team pursuit medals. After her gritty performance at the 2024 Zürich World Championships, where she nearly clinched the rainbow jersey, I bet on 2025 as her breakthrough year on the road, free from track commitments.
In theory, the northern classics—races that grind riders down over rough terrain—should play right into her wheelhouse. For beginners, these are endurance tests where positioning in the pack can be tricky, but sheer attrition favors strong survivors like Dygert. Reality fell short, though. She kicked off strongly in Australia with a stage victory at the Santos Tour Down Under and a podium finish at Surf Coast Classic. Yet, the European classics didn't unfold as planned. Her sixth at Milan-San Remo and eighth at Paris-Roubaix hint at her aptitude, but a 2019 crash that almost ended her career makes her mere presence in these punishing events a triumph.
I might recycle this forecast for next year. And this is the part most people miss: How much does past trauma influence current performance? Is Dygert's resilience inspiring, or does it highlight cycling's physical toll on women?
Prediction No. 4: Pauline Ferrand-Prévot crowns a French Tour de France champion
Outcome: 5/5
Pauline Ferrand-Prévot's announcement after her 2024 Paris Olympics mountain biking gold—that she was eyeing the yellow jersey—felt like destiny. Achieving it on her debut attempt was nothing short of extraordinary. Her transition to Visma-Lease a Bike provided the ideal platform, with team resources tailored for major victories. For those new to the sport, the yellow jersey symbolizes overall leadership in the Tour de France.
Yet, PFP's double-stage wins in the French Alps sparked heated debate, with detractors accusing her of prioritizing performance over well-being. She's undeniably a true professional, embodying versatility akin to Marianne Vos. Forecasting another yellow for 2026 will seem far less audacious.
But here's where it gets controversial: In a sport where sacrifices are routine, is criticizing riders for pushing limits fair, or does it undermine their dedication? What boundaries should we draw in elite cycling?
Prediction No. 5: Primož Roglič exacts vengeance at the Tour de France
Outcome: 1/5
For truly bold predictions, you commit fully to Primož Roglič reclaiming his throne. I hoped the cycling fates would grant poetic justice in 2025, propelling Roglič to yellow. Early wins in Catalunya and initial Giro dominance offered a spark of optimism. As a longtime Roglič supporter, I appreciate his unpredictable, thrilling style—you never know which version will emerge.
Unfortunately, a Giro crash seemed to sap his focus; he remained in the Tour but lacked the explosive form for contention. His eighth-place finish, modest by his benchmarks, suggests possible fatigue at 36. With Remco Evenepoel ascending and Florian Lipowitz vying for attention at Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, Roglič might pivot to the Vuelta in 2026 for a historic bid.
This could mark his final Tour chapter. And this is the part most people miss: Does age truly define a rider's prime, or can wisdom compensate for waning power? Is Roglič's legacy already secure, or does he need one more miracle?
As 2026 approaches, what's your take on outrageous cycling forecasts for next season? Do you think Pogačar's reign will continue unchallenged, or will an underdog shake things up? Share your predictions—and any counterpoints—in the comments; I'd love to hear if you agree, disagree, or have a controversial twist of your own!
